American Idol Double Elimination Viewer's Guide

Idol's producers really grabbed our attention here at Idol Pool headquarters when they announced that Adam Lambert would be this week's mentor. Just what kind of job can we expect of such a young star? Will his advice offer contestants a boost or the kiss of death?

Thinking about these questions led us to larger musings on the nature of mentorship itself. As someone who was first an Idol Pool Apprentice, then an Idol Pool Journeyman, before becoming the Idol Pool Master, I know about mentorship from both sides. Though the Idol Pool Internship Program has now folded, old-timers in the Pool will no doubt remember Debbie the Intern, author of innumerable emails and blog posts during Seasons 3 and 4.

Many of you have probably wondered what happened to Debbie. What has she done with the last five years of her life? Where did she go after her auspicious start here at Idol Pool Headquarters?

Well, we're happy to report that Debbie has been in a grad program studying statistics since she left Headquarters, and all that education is finally paying dividends. Debbie's dissertation, "Performance Order as Destiny: An Empirical Study of the Determinants of American Idol Success" is nearing completion, and she wrote to share some of her early findings. Apparently, we've all been fooled this whole time. As it turns out, on Idol, mentorship doesn't matter. Song choice doesn't matter. It doesn't even matter whether you can sing. (That's the good news, Tim Urban.) The ONLY thing that matters is the order in which the contestants perform. Here's Debbie's proof:


For those who don't understand statistics, can't follow graphs, or are colorblind, Debbie summarizes: "America hates contestants who go first or fourth. They are doomed to failure."

Frankly, we find this hard to believe. Doesn't Debbie's own story prove that good instruction and careful mentorship makes anything possible? If that's not true, why would we have spent $17.95 worth of your Idol Pool entry fees on "What's Up Dawg?: How to Become a Superstar in the Music Business"?

For that matter, why would we have have spent the rest of this year's pool money on an hour lesson with Randy and Kara?

No--we still believe in mentorship here at Idol HQ. If mentorship didn't work, there wouldn't be any hope at all for slashing sugar, hearing the music in our lives, or--most importantly--singing the Elvis songbook.

We'll see you on the Comments Board tomorrow night.