The 2008 American Idol Pool Entries

Crunching the Numbers Part 2 - Fan Clubs and Haters

Another aspect of your 78 picks we examined while we had nothing to do on a rainy Friday night was to see who specifically in the group ranked certain contestants highly (the fan clubs) and who ranked certain contestants poorly (the haters).

This is a good link to go back to during the season. If you are in a tight race with somebody else in the pool, check this posting to see who your enemy has ranked highly and then hire a voodoo priestess (or priest) to hex that contestant for the week. This approach worked consistently for Will Beekman last year, and he ended up winning the pool. History has shown it also was very successful for the 2004 Red Sox.


For some of the contestants, we provided links. If you click on their name, it will take you to some very special videos. We especially recommend Jason's, Syesha's, and David Archuleta's.

Without further ado, here are the fan clubs and haters for each contestant in order that you ranked them:

1. David Archuleta

Fan Club
Have him as American Idol: 43 people. That's well over half the group. Unfortunately, this excludes 43 people from the American Idol Winners Pool.
Have him as Runner-up: 15 people
Have him finishing 3rd: 12 people

70 out of 78 of you who have David A. in the top 3. That's 90% of the group. Amazing.

If David A. goes out this week, it will spell certain disaster for pretty much everyone but the people below -

Haters
Have him out of the top 12: Chris F., Mark - yes, you're reading that right.
Have him finishing anywhere between 12th and 6th:No One
Have him finishing 6th:Neisha
Have him finishing 5th:Jen S., Kendra, Paul F.

2 out of the 78 of you have David A. in the bottom 3 or out. That's about 4%.



2. Carly Smithson

Fan Club
Have her as American Idol: 12 people. Like David A., if Carly wins, the American Idol Winners Pool is void.
Have her as Runner-up: 28 people
Have her finishing 3rd: 15 people

55 out of 78 of you have Carly in the top 3. That's almost 71% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12: Chris F., Dave S., Mark....Chris F. and Mark - both have Dave A. and Carly out of their top 12.
Have her finishing 12th:Mike & Suzy
Have her finishing 11th:Dave L.
Have her finishing 10th:No one

5 out of the 78 of you have Carly in the bottom 3 or out. That's 6% of the group.



3. Michael Johns
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol: Dave S., Team Ringey
Have him as Runner-up: 10 people
Have him finishing 3rd: 15 people

27 out of 78 of you have Michael in the top 3. That's almost 35% of the group.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12: Peter
Have him finishing 12th:Missy
Have him finishing 11th:Cathleen, Chris F., Michael W.
Have him finishing 10th:Damian, Jen S., Mike & Suzy

8 out of the 78 of you have Michael in the bottom 3 or out. That's 10% of the group.



4. David Cook
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol: Anh, Cathleen, Jennie L., Jenn S., Katie K., Suzanne, Suzy M. - 7 people
Have him as Runner-up: Amy Y., Dave L., Jean Claude, Jon, Kendra, Lisa B., Liz, Matt, Paul F. - 9 people
Have him finishing 3rd: Brooke, Denis, Julie H., Meredith, Sean, Stephen - 6 people

22 out of 78 of you have David C. in the top 3. That's 28% of the group.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12: Julie W., Neisha, Will A.
Have him finishing 12th:No One
Have him finishing 11th:Mike & Suzy
Have him finishing 10th:Chris F., Julie K., Katy L., Mike L., Missy, Paul P., Peter - 7 people

11 out of the 78 of you have David C. in the bottom 3 or out. That's 14% of the group.



5. Brooke White
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol: Andy, Chris F., Dave L., Peter, Ryan - 5 people
Have her as Runner-up: Amy L-P., Damian, Jan M., Jennie L., Will A. - 5 people
Have her finishing 3rd: Jan W., Kathryn, Missy, Scott, Stephanie H., Suzanne - 6 people

16 out of 78 of you have Brooke in the top 3. That's about 21% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12: Rich
Have her finishing 12th:Cindy, Dina, Judy, Neisha - 4 people
Have her finishing 11th:Cristina, Dave S., Julie W., Katy L. - 4 people
Have her finishing 10th:Jenny M., Marcia, Paul F., Stacie, Suzy M., Team Ringey - 6 people

15 out of the 78 of you have Brooke in the bottom 3 or out. That's 19% of the group.



6. Syesha Mercado
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol: Cindy, Dina, Don, Michelle, Mike & Suzy - 5 people
Have her as Runner-up: Cristina, Jan W.
Have her finishing 3rd: Chris F., Jenny M., Katy L., Marcia, Mike L., Ryan, Stacie, Team 'Tini - 8 people

15 out of 78 of you have Syesha in the top 3. That's about 19% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12: Andy, Brooke, Denis, Emily, Jaime, Jean Claude, Julie W., Kendra, Paul F. - 9 people
Have her finishing 12th:Will B.
Have her finishing 11th:Brian, Katie K., Lance, Sean - 4 people
Have her finishing 10th:Corona, Judy, Kristin, Matt, Melissa, Team O'Brien - 6 people

20 out of the 78 of you have Syesha in the bottom 3 or out. That's nearly 26% of the group.

With 5 people having her winning and 9 people having her not even in the top 12, Syesha is, in my opinion, the wild card for this season American Idol Pool. She is all over the place from entry to entry.



7. Jason Castro
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol: No one
Have him as Runner-up:Lance, Paul P., Scott
Have him finishing 3rd:Jaime, Jane, Julie W., Michael W. - 4 people

7 out of 78 of you have Jason in the top 3. That's about 9% of the group.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12: Cristina, Sean, Will A.
Have him finishing 12th:Anh, Mark, Michelle
Have him finishing 11th:Dina, Jill, Neisha, Stacie, Team 'Tini - 5 people
Have him finishing 10th:Dave S., Kathryn, Kendra, Stephanie H. - 4 people

15 out of the 78 of you have Jason in the bottom 3 or out. That's 19% of the group.



8. Ramiele Malubay
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol: Julie W., Paul F.
Have her as Runner-up:Brian, Matty
Have her finishing 3rd:Julie K., Paul P., Will B.

7 out of 78 of you have Ramiele in the top 3. That's about 9% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12:10 people
Have her finishing 12th:Chris F., Corona
Have her finishing 11th:Amy L-P., Andy, Kara, Team O'Brien - 4 people
Have her finishing 10th:Aneesha, Brooke, Dave L., Don, Jennie L., Lisa S., Suzanne - 7 people

23 out of the 78 of you have Ramiele in the bottom 3 or out. That's 29% of the group.



9. David Hernandez
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol: No One
Have him as Runner-up:No One
Have him finishing 3rd:Jen S., Jill, Mike & Suzy
Next best:Amy Y., Lance, and Peter have him 4th

3 out of 78 of you have David H. in the top 3. That's almost 4% of the group.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12:12 people
Have him finishing 12th:Damian, Dave L., Jan M., Julie H., Julie K., Katie K., Liz - 7 people
Have him finishing 11th:11 people
Have him finishing 10th:Cathleen, Dina, Kara, Michael W., Rich, Ryan, Scott, Stephen - 8 people

38 out of the 78 of you have David H. in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 49% of the group.



10. Amanda Overmyer
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol: No One
Have her as Runner-up:No One
Have her finishing 3rd:Judy, Kendra
Next best:Stacie has her 4th, and Suzanne has her 5th

2 out of 78 of you have Amanda in the top 3. That's almost 3% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12:15 people
Have her finishing 12th:Cathleen, Don, Marybeth & Lucy, Ryan, Stephanie H., Team 'Tini - 6 people
Have her finishing 11th:12 people
Have her finishing 10th:Alieda, Amy L-P., Amy Y., Brian, Lisa B., Mandy, Matty, Will B. - 8 people

41 out of the 78 of you have Amanda in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 53% of the group.



11. Asia'h Epperson
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol:Mark, Neisha
Have her as Runner-up:Judy
Have her finishing 3rd:No One
Next best:Denis and Mike & Suzy have her 4th

3 out of 78 of you have Asia'h in the top 3. That's almost 4% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12:22 people
Have her finishing 12th:Dave S., Lisa B., Melissa, Mike L., Stacie, Suzy M. - 6 people
Have her finishing 11th:Brooke, Jen S., Peter
Have her finishing 10th:10 people

41 out of the 78 of you have Asia'h in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 53% of the group.



12. Kristy Lee Cook
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol:No One
Have her as Runner-up:Suzy M.
Have her finishing 3rd:Dave S., Mark, Peter - 3 people
Next best:Chris F. and Julie W. have her 4th

4 out of 78 of you have Kristy Lee in the top 3. That's 5% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12:28 people
Have her finishing 12th:14 people
Have her finishing 11th:Amy Y., Kristin, Lisa S., Liz, Mandy, Matty, Scott - 7 people
Have her finishing 10th:Cindy, Cristina, Denis, Jean Claude, Jill, Karen, Meredith, Neisha - 8 people

57 out of the 78 of you have Kristy Lee in the bottom 3 or out. That's 73% of the group.



13. Danny Noriega
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol:No One
Have him as Runner-up to 4th:No One
Have him finishing 5th:Julie K.,
Next best:Melissa and Peter have him 6th

0 out of 78 of you have Danny in the top 3.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12:27 people
Have him finishing 12th:14 people
Have him finishing 11th:12 people
Have him finishing 10th:Emily, Jan M., Jane, Lance, Team 'Tini, Will A. - 6 people

59 out of the 78 of you have Danny in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 76% of the group.



14. Chikezie
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol:No One
Have him as Runner-up to 3rd:No One
Have him finishing 4th:Judy
Next best:Cathleen, Missy, and Sean have him 5th

0 out of 78 of you have Chikezie in the top 3.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12:37 people
Have him finishing 12th:15 people
Have him finishing 11th:Corona, Denis, Don, Lisa B., Michelle, Ryan, Stephanie H., Suzy M. - 8 people
Have him finishing 10th:Jaime, Julie R., Liz

63 out of the 78 of you have Chikezie in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 81% of the group.



15. Kady Malloy
Fan Club
Have her as American Idol:No One
Have her as Runner-up:No One
Have her finishing 3rd:Paul F.
Next best:Mike & Suzy have her 6th, Julie W. has her 7th

1 out of 78 of you has Kady in the top 3. That's 1% of the group.

Haters
Have her out of the top 12:68 people
Have her finishing 12th:Suzanne, Will A.
Have her finishing 11th:Mike L., Rich
Have her finishing 10th:Mark

73 out of the 78 of you have Kady in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 94% of the group.



16. Luke Menard
Fan Club
Have him as American Idol:No One
Have him as Runner-up:Chris F., Mark
Have him finishing 3rd:No One
Next best:Will A. has him 7th, Julie W. has him 9th

2 out of 78 of you have Luke in the top 3. That's about 3% of the group.

Haters
Have him out of the top 12:71 people
Have him finishing 12th:Cristina, Peter
Have him finishing 11th:No One
Have him finishing 10th:Sean

74 out of the 78 of you have Luke in the bottom 3 or out. That's almost 95% of the group.

Crunching the Numbers Part 1 - The Wisdom of Crowds

First of all, an explanation -

We here at AI HQ decided to take all 78 of your entries to figure out, on average, what the group thinks the rankings should be. Assigning a number from 1 to 12 for each of your top 12 (and the number 13 for the 4 people each of you left off your list), we came up with this:

1. David A. - average score 2.10
2. Carly - 3.42
3. Michael - 5.18
4. David C. - 5.26
5. Brooke - 5.94
6. Syesha - 6.90
7. Jason - 7.40
8. Ramiele - 7.56
9. David H. - 9.12
10. Amanda - 9.53
11. Asia'h - 9.58
12. Kristy Lee - 10.64

That is the average score for your top 12 as a group. Clearly David A. is the big front runner, while the wisdom of your crowd thinks Jason and Ramiele are pretty interchangeable as are David H., Amanda, and already-booted Asia'h.

What if the 78 of you wanted to submit a single entry to me this season? That entry would be rejected by yours truly since it has 7 girls and 5 guys. The lowest rated girl, Kristy Lee, would have to get the boot for the next highest rated guy. That happens to be Danny with an average score of 11.01 (FYI - then Chikezie was 14th with an average rating of 11.37, then Kady with 12.47, and finally Luke with a 12.53).


So, the average top-12 list for all 78 of you with 6 guys and 6 girls would look like this:
1. David A.
2. Carly
3. Michael
4. David C.
5. Brooke
6. Syesha
7. Jason
8. Ramiele
9. David H.
10. Amanda
11. Asia'h
12. Danny

I went back and looked over all of your entries to see who came the closest to this entry. No one hit it exactly. This is the closest entry I could find:
1. David A.
2. Carly
3. Michael
4. David C.
5. Brooke
6. Syesha
7. Jason
8. Asia'h
9. David H.
10. Ramiele
11. Amanda
12. Danny

Not too shabby, right?
- 1 to 7 are exactly the same, as are numbers 9 and 12.
- The group says Ramiele at 8, Amanda at 10, and Asia'h at 11 and this entry says Asia'h at 8, Ramiele at 10, and Amanada at 11.


Want to know who it is who came so close to having an entry so close to the wisdom of your crowd?

Who could be so observant to accurately summarize the thoughts of a group of Americans as someone who is removed from America and can observe it remotely and without bias? That's right, our group's Alexis de Tocqueville is none other than Aneesha Baig, our contestant in India!!!

Congrats Aneesha. If the 78 entries on average turn out to be right, you're going to be in really good shape this American Idol season.

Standings after Week 1

Week 1 Side Pool winners Stephanie and Stephen Hall pictured above.

Tie-1. Amy Larsen-Pond - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Amy York - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Brian - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Cathleen - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Julie R. - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Kristin - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Meredith - 12 points (max 364)
Tie-1. Stephanie - 12 points (max 364) - Co-winner of the Week 1 Side Pool
Tie-1. Stephen - 12 points (max 364) - Co-winner of the Week 1 Side Pool
Tie-1. Team O'Brien - 12 points (max 364)

Tie-11. Lisa B. - 11 points (max 363)
Tie-11. Mandy - 11 points (max 363)
Tie-11. Matty - 11 points (max 363)
Tie-11. Stacie - 11 points (max 363)
Tie-11. Suzy M. - 11 points (max 363)

Tie-16. Cindy - 11 points (max 361)
Tie-16. Jenn S. - 11 points (max 361)

18. Jane - 11 points (max 358)

Tie-19. Jennie L. - 11 points (max 354)
Tie-19. Karen - 11 points (max 354)
Tie-19. Lisa S. - 11 points (max 354)
Tie-19. Marcia - 11 points (max 354)
Tie-19. Missy - 11 points (max 354)
Tie-19. Ryan - 11 points (max 354)

Tie-25. Dave L. - 11 points (max 349)
Tie-25. Jaime - 11 points (max 349)
Tie-25. Kara - 11 points (max 349)
Tie-25. Liz - 11 points (max 349)
Tie-25. Matt - 11 points (max 349)

Tie-30. Corona - 11 points (max 343)
Tie-30. Dina - 11 points (max 343)
Tie-30. Don - 11 points (max 343)

33. Michael W. - 11 points (max 328)

34. Paul F. - 11 points (max 309)

Tie-35. Jan W. - 10 points (max 357)
Tie-35. Yvonne - 10 points (max 357)

Tie-37. Anh - 10 points (max 355)
Tie-37. Julie H. - 10 points (max 355)
Tie-37. Marybeth & Lucy - 10 points (max 355)

Tie-40. Katy L. - 10 points (max 353)
Tie-40. Suzanne - 10 points (max 353)

Tie-42. Jenny M. - 10 points (max 351)
Tie-42. Kendra - 10 points (max 351)

Tie-44. Alieda - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Andy - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Aneesha - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Cristina - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Kathryn - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Katie K. - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Scott - 10 points (max 348)
Tie-44. Team 'Tini - 10 points (max 348)

52. Will B. - 10 points (max 346)

Tie-53. Jan M. - 10 points (max 343)
Tie-53. Michelle - 10 points (max 343)

55. Jill - 10 points (max 342)

Tie-56. Brooke - 10 points (max 340)
Tie-56. Damian - 10 points (max 340)
Tie-56. Jean Claude - 10 points (max 340)
Tie-56. Rich - 10 points (max 340)
Tie-56. Team Ringey - 10 points (max 340)

61. Jon - 10 points (max 337)

Tie-62. Melissa - 10 points (max 335)
Tie-62. Paul P. - 10 points (max 335)

64. Emily - 10 points (max 330)

65. Lance - 10 points (max 322)

66. Denis - 10 points (max 318)

67. Julie K. - 10 points (max 307)

68. Judy - 10 points (max 295)

69. Neisha - 10 points (max 276)

70. Sean - 9 points (max 342)

71. Mike L. - 9 points (max 339)

72. Dave S. - 9 points (max 338)

73. Peter - 9 points (max 332)

74. Mike & Suzy - 9 points (max 270)

75. Chris F. - 9 points (max 267)

76. Julie W. - 8 points (max 326)

77. Will A. - 8 points (max 321)

78. Mark - 8 points (max 211)